Housing is broken

Independent Scotland 2.0 needs Housing and Energy 2.0

What I hope to layout in this blog piece is a POST YES future, one that's radical yet simple on housing/energy.

I hope to explain that in order to be free that we must think BEYOND simply a YES vote, deep into what will and wont be not just our emancipation from the democratic deficit of Westminster, but also that of the neoliberal system that controls it.

If Scotland simply repeats the normal "feeding of developer and banks" housing model, then we still have the neoliberal problems associated with it of bubbles, sub prime, and govts/electorate both held to ransom.

Lets change that.

Post Indy Scotland needs to look at not just wages, import/exports, GDP, taxation , but in order to progress all of our lives then care and attention should be paid to our take home pay and outgoings TOO.

This Blog is called NAEMAIRMAISTERS for a reason, if we simply remove Westminster and replace it with independence - then all we have done is replace oor maisters with new ones, not remove them.

So....

Lets tackle the biggest outgoings for many in Scotland's pocket.

1.Housing.

2.Energy.

3.Council taxes – including LVT.

Housing.

Scotland is headed towards a normalcy of main income earner mortgages approaching 9x take home pay. The subprime crash was caused by it being over 6x.

When I bought my first property I was told by the same banks that are today advertising 9x AS normalcy that ANYTHING over 3.5x main income salary they would NEVER lend to me due to risk of default. Fast forward a few years and they went unpunished for subprime, infact if anything they were rewarded for it by bailouts.

So lets talk housing.

Median and Average based stats in the creation of a sustainable and affordable housing supply chain.

At the time of writing the Scottish National house price average is nearly 147k , remember that Number its important. SOURCE - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-august-2017/uk-house-price-index-scotland-august-2017

The Scottish Govt considers this the normal price when considering what is and isn't Affordable Housing, both bought, and the supply of rented new built when it gives councils grants to build new social rented.

Today the Scottish MEDIAN wage is just shy of 24k , though geographically this can be under 20k , a surprising amount lower. Source - https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/how-much-is-the-average-wage-in-scotland-1-4626564

The median wage is by far a better indicator into Scottish wages, closer to the true AVERAGE if you will via excluding the higher income brackets – which in reality when considering housing planning and pricing for the wealthy thus needs excluding.

The wealthy professional will always have their houses regardless.The affluent can afford and deserve the premium it costs, they aren't really the true problem, much like the poorest neither – but BOTH get the blame regardless.

So to find the MIEAH, Main income earner affordability for housing, then we have to do a little calculator work.

147k divided by the median wage of 24k, gives us a MIEAH of roughly 6.5x.

But remember this is based on GROSS WAGES not take home pay, ie sans tax aka net , or indeed includes costs to get to work ie commuting costs eating into it. Scottish Govt own findings recently also repeat what I mentioned earlier, what I was told by my bank for my first property – that anything over 3.5 is perceived as risky.

Areas like Rural Dumfrieshire, Ayrshire etc where regional wages are much lower than the national median CAN mean more than 6.5x MIEAH unless new homes are based on a lower price, or older homes become their only option to buy , that is if private landlords have already snapped them up for leasing.

Where to make changes after Independence?

Today it seems even ScotGov is in bed with land owners, developers and banking – continuing the Westminster system of same supply narrative, through mirroring it, and not seeking a new way to tackle HOUSING instead.

The first tool in housing should be the complete direction model achieved by housing need and demand surveys, aka HNDS – bulwarking the power of ScotGov as a regulator, director, partner, supplier and not merely a willing beggar thus held to political ransom of profiteers.

These HNDS need to be correlated VIA civil service data ie census, not directed by those with a financial output from it, like estate agents, letting agents, private land lords, land owners, developers and so on. Though their input could and should be included but as an "advisement" only, more so where they have a vested interest financially in playing the market preventing a NEED first approach.

The simplest way to direct housing by ScotGov is what I term "getting at the marrow"

ScotGov should not be a driver/enabler/campaigner for landowners and developers, or risks being held ransom, perhaps willingly, as much as the electorate are themselves. Both Govt and the end consumer, the electorate, forget they are the ones with the REAL POWER to change housing – for the better.

WE as buyers and renters, empowered by GOVT need to be removing the profiteers power, including that of banks selling mortgages whom will repeat subprime that led to the financial crash. In doing so the developer and banks come in as reluctant partners, but only through removing council waiting lists FIRST, INCREASING affordable bought housing 2nd, before going then onto the "marrow" – their reward the juicy marrow of 3rd.

Lest say if you live in an area where bought housing is thus going to be a PROFIT only planning endeavour, where the HIGHER demand and need is not addressed , then in order to get to the "marrow" developers , banks and land owners NEED to then operate as NFP suppliers - not instead as directors/creators of planning policy , enabling vote grabbing mandates for ANY all to eager politicians- aka where it is today , the status qou.

In doing "the marrow model" then ScotGov has then applied Darwinian evolution into the housing chain, "if they don't adapt they die", and along comes another keen to take their place , SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST.

You can think of it as Capitalism in action, for those of you that know the original and not its tribute act neoliberalism.

NFP, not for profit, means that the onus is on the developer to build at an exacting budget, becoming a second type of developer, through changing production techniques and plots to supply cheaper housing, but not cheaper QUALITY housing. An EVOLVED supply and demand that they can then impart on their overall supply, not just affordable or social rented, thus becoming more profitable and all the more stronger for it.

Social housing , vs Antisocial housing.

Currently Developers and Land owners are being SUBSIDISED through things like FIRST TIME BUYERS SCHEMES, neoliberalism in action, not capitalism – preventing the evolution of housing.

While those developers sit with planned sites with little or no interest to build on them, called landbanking, they are in effect getting tax payer funded state aid while that land RISES in value.

By leaving sites dormant its pushing the Scottish average house price UPWARDS, even without a brick being laid , so there is no incentive created to use those sites – What I suggest is to create that incentive also, via use it or lose it planning.

Rather than demanding EVOLUTIONARY change, we sit feeding the trough like there is no other option available – there is.

Social Housing.

Once upon a time social housing was called council housing, the art of the lie is that by renaming it SOCIAL it attached a SOCIAL stigma to it – as inferring only the poorest of society should be housed in it, then summarily resented for it as tax payer subsidised parasites in doing so.

SOCIAL STIGMA is an extension of something I did a paper on warning about Thatcher in the 80s, the corralling of the poor, aka a very British Apartheid.

Even back when I wrote that long and rambling piece, sadly now long gone, it was more of a Nostradamus met Niemoller warning, and totally over the head of the average reader then - including my tutor. When we look at where we have went since the 80s, another financial crash, then brexit , and the rise of the once simmering right, then I wish I still had a copy to attach to this blog.

IF Orwell is so well received today in politics with his writing, then that thesis I did would make him tip a hat to me, had he been alive then he would have perhaps plagiarised it as a prequel to 1984 or at the very least rename it 1985.

But I digress , back to Housing.

Social housing played a bigger part in the rebuilding of the UK post empire, post wars, than many give it credit for. Kensyian action, not austerity is the trusted working model. We are already at year 10 of post financial crash , and the national debt despite austerity cuts, wages stagnation, has somehow meant the national debt will hit 3 trillion pounds this year. Now lets add brexit , and we are at the very least looking at another decade.

Banks, profiteers and the like have regressed the economy that grew with subsidised housing, once empowering low pay as enough to live on, or to have larger families than today, and perhaps create a little savings from it – thus spending money that became local GDP, not instead offshored wealth and dividends for the few exported from LOCAL GDP with the mortgage model.

Theres no surprise then that by removing the industries that these workers lived NEARBY, perhaps in council homes they even built through working in councils as trades, that major economically active towns died in Scotland, repeated in the English North.

It was as I noted back in the 80s a plan, aided by stolen Scots oil (that I didn't know about then) and McCrone, to de industrialise, thus de unionise the left and move the economy to the South East of the UK – that services and banking economy which is broken now , and will worsen even further with brexit.

The capitalist economic output of the worker is no longer that of building Ships, Mining and Foundries – but the worker themselves.

Through neoliberalism the worker has become the coalface, directly as a forced buyer instead of council renter, then again as tax payer bailing out the banks/developers for a subprime financial crash – Yet here we are where banks are once again offering sub prime , and no one is up in arms?

Right to Buy.

RTB was also one of those divisive things, one that those so eager to do didn't think about for their children in the future being without social housing for them to do the same.

But as we now know that simply wasn't the case, nor will it be for their grand-kids whom will have it much , much worse, either as stay at home kids, renters of now decrepit ex council properties and private landlords, or 35 year mortgage slaves plus a considerable deposit and sub prime too.

Sure it was ok for the first generation, buying their council homes, knowing that some day they would live rent free.

But as I doomsayed back then that they would be used as dementia tax piggy banks via forced sales for care , we weren't listened to. They were too busy wanting to protect an appreciating asset, upward prices, to see the trees for the wood – that indeed they were still in effect merely renting on a new model.

Even in the late 80s when I warned about RTB in the LEFT, on their promises to rebuild councils, I had a nagging doubt about RTB, like many I STILL believed Labours doorstep and media promises that they would get rid of it. Little did I know that it would be over a decade before Labour would finally get into Govt and only then on the centre, while telling us they were still the left, to only keep RTB and conveniently forgot replacing council stock as they promised.

In fact while we had a Labour Govt in Westminster, Labour councils in Scotland, and a Labour ScotGov they built SIX council houses, yes that's 6 fucking council houses in Scotland, while they gave Westminster back 1.5 billion pounds - because they didn't know what to do with it.

That's why I argue that eventually post indy LOCAL control of housing policy should be the norm or history repeats, politicians are enabled by promises, a political TERM is too valuable, too important, too short, to leave it to NATIONAL govt - where policy can be reversed by the next bum on a warmed seat.

Labour had known at council and national party level that RTB was a busted flush, it knew the money from sales went DIRECTLY to Westminster since its inception.

The smart thing to do, like it politically promised, was to end the RTB system.

Labour didn't end RTB , though ScotGov without them in power eventually did – but I am not so sure it was the best option by the SNP , despite my obvious dislike of it.

RTB 2.0

Earlier I mentioned how I dislike RTB, its not the principle, its the failure I dislike. Let me explain.

Thatchers love child, RTB, never had the monies returned to councils to build more stock – that's pretty much my basis for its failure, well plus the empowerment of banks leading to mortgage slaves from taxpayer owned assets and the revelation that over 40% of ex council homes are now in private landlord hands.

Thats in my opinion a multi level failure , multi party.

Had I been the SNP and ScotGov adviser I would have argued for RTB being remade, as a tool for supply and council empowerment that Labour promised. But then again I find great irony, and perverse pleasure, in the proper SOCIALISING of Thatchers politics.

RTB 2.0 with some tinkering could well be the long term solution to BOTH the AFFORDABLE bought housing market, as well as the Council rented one, with EVEN more benefits than that of a single action.Which I hope to explain....

Hopefully you still remember the bit earlier when I talked of "marrow", HNDS, and Darwinian capitalism? Plus the argument against the neosubsidy of developers, thus land owners and banks by taxpayers?

Social housing , Affordable Bought , and Right to buy – its supply in 5 steps.

1. SG legislate rigid NEW planning time frames on licences and consents, for new and retro active private housing landbanked via the "marrow" model.

2. SG and Councils use the HNDS, find there's need, then tell the developers – "IF Social rented and Affordable housing is the larger LOCAL need then planning is closed for private bought applications".

If there ALREADY is enough planning and consents there unused already privately , ie land banked, issues a time frame to commit and supply or removes the consent plus time bars the site for future planning applications.

It then FORCES developers into a NFP model of Darwinian capitalism, rather than neoliberalism continuing in order to survive.

3.Combine the new building of Council homes with "training and apprenticeships" in the Sector as the NEW FORM OF SOCIAL AND ETHICAL SUBSIDY, creating LOCAL not COMMUTING employment, and via factoryised flat pack offsite assembly.

Remember that LOCAL GDP I was talking about, well it then returns, preventing offshore wealth and shareholder dividends on the taxpayer purse?

Uplifting areas of SIMD as a secondary bonus.

4.Bring back RTB where all monies are returned from sales, NEW sales costed at the CURRENT price to replace, now cheaper btw than the current supply medium via making developers NFP.

COUNCILS AS THE MORTGAGE HOLDERS/LENDERS secondary bonus.

5. Legistlate planning for All new builds, not just RTB, to have ECO footprints, solar roofs tesla wall , supplying councils as NFP energy company as an additional income for councils, reducing ALL owners and renters fuel poverty with air to air heating. Also mentioned in SB below.

Now onto -

SELF BUILDS – Councils as enablers , suppliers , planners , mortgage holders.

Many people don't even know what a SELF BUILD is, and even if they do a large percentage of them cant or wont do it as the deliverer of housing FOR LIFE, at a price cheaper than buying one built by a developer.

The benefits are numerous , far more than the amount of actual fears and blocks.

An average self build plot, with planning can be expensive, sometimes more expensive than the cost to build a house on it – but here we can have a multifaceted benefit for more than just the home builder with some mild tinkering to the systems we already have in place.

Too often our councils are keen to sell off land, for others to land bank reaping the benefit, when both the home owner and councils would see larger and more varied benefits.

If ScotGov were to empower councils as vendors and partners of self build, not only do the council make MORE money from each plot and will still be cheaper than buying from a 3rd party to the end buyer, they then can become contractors in the supply chain where laws of purchase power are in its favour vs that of a single build for the purchaser. If they can also be the mortgage seller - even becoming a house-builder on its own right , and trainer of local trades even better , so a secondary benefit.

Many don't EVEN know of the discounts available to the average self builder, including vat reclaim.And with bulk purchases, as a co-op collective through councils, the considerable reductions in costs to be had.

A mortgage that could well be a 10 year plan can be achievable via self build , vs that today of 30 years or more.

Method – Supplying Self Bulds via councils , can be used in combination with "marrow" already mentioned.

1. Prevent any further selling of council land to 3rd parties – its yet another tax payer subsidy , so why not to the taxpayer directly?

2.Develop the site to plot level, including roads and services.

3.Councils sell those sites as individual plots, much cheaper than it would be as from 3rd party or ready built homes.

4. Council as Contractor, supplier of prebooked flat pack homes, say based on 2 bed gable ended bungalows, future proofed ready for developing attic as starter homes.

5.If possible plan for a factoryised Council OWNED goal to reduce costs further than simply contracting timber frames.

6. Prebook breeze and brick for down the supply chain , as local as possible using eco tech like hempcrete.

7.Use colleges as onsite trainers for apprenticeships via the contractors, with a view to them being future council building trades and decide on sweat equity as golden handcuffs using plots, plus decisions on rehabilitation of offenders through training for work schemes – reducing cost further.

8.Supply chain for solar roof, inc tesla wall, feeding NFP/Council eco power company as investor/supplier of roof. Possible partner in TESLA to bring in an EU factory, RnD to Scotland.Looking to making modern housing SMART DC away from AC.

9.Consider site leaseholds for long term council income and as replacement council tax.

10. Air to Air heating and recovery – ideally single phase DC.

11.Orientate sites to maximise solar passive and active gains.

12. Decrease housing density , increase arboreal density – ie green spaces.

13.Councils have first right to buy – Reverse RTB if you will , with a min discount perhaps akin to that of the VAT rate reclaimed by the self builder.

14.Forward planning for extensions consent on NEED, sadly too many sites today are too condensed and not up to task of conversion for disability or extensions for granny annexes.

15. Allotment area for residents , bring eco and organic to local , plus activity and supply of park foliage via self planting and management by residents.

16.Prevent internal Garages being turned into additional rooms contractually , thus antisocial pavement parking increasing.

17. Plan a "hidden" sports track 400m as part of pavement layout to increase exercise , perhaps with internal fenced dog fouling area as a covered suds drain and artificial turf to prevent flooding.

18 Plan "re-water" use of sink/shower/bath water as toilet flush, as well as water harvesting reducing water usage at the main – thus cost for our tax payer owned water company.

Now to think further than 10 years on housing....

Demographic change , the changes needed in Scottish Housing need planning today – urgently.

The above can be used as a blueprint for the demographics ahead of us as a form of care villages ready for the aged Tsunami time bomb, both as care in the community, or as aged resident villages in its own right. With specialised "urban or rural care villages" comes the option of on site concierge/care, in perhaps a dual setup of council and private sharing the same sites, or indeed simply council and private.

Energy.

I touched on some things earlier on Energy, but as both the 1st and 2nd major outgoing its more important than people think when talking current, or indeed future housing.

People today, not just pensioners, nor the unemployed, are living in homes they are buying, have paid off and even renting all live in fuel poverty in Scotland, having to choose heat or eat.

This is in a nation that could be self sustaining in gas were it not stolen from it and that makes it a double tragedy, tripled if you include the privatisation of once tax payer owned utilities that was meant to bring competition as well as the promised lower prices from it.

Our homes today still run on late 19th century power, coal might not be in the hearth but its still in the power stations generating the electricity which has remained unchanged in its supply since the early 20th century – just like gas has.

Any technological changes have been slow, and at times rejected, if not DELIBERATELY PREVENTED.

So we need to look at HOUSING 2.0 for future changes enabling Energy 2.0.Those changes are needed at planning level and can be legislated for in under a political term.

1.Whole solar roof, Tesla WALL batteries and Fuel Cell inc cars used as home electricity generators.

2.Air to Air heating.

3.Moving away from Gas.

4.Creating legislation for the DC house, AC to house DC internally.

5. Soverign Not For Profit Energy company – as the driver for change.

6.Tidal and wind power generation, as well as hydrogen generation from its off peak, at rural homes and farms as a crop, in the community, and at our power station sites for storage and peak power generation including liquefying ready for fuel cell cars.

7.Passive solar heating via rethinking site planning and building legislation.

8.Once independent using the OIL as a delivery vehicle for the post carbon economy in housing via eco investment.

9.Planning changes = SMART homes using DC instead of AC – creation of ISO standard WALL PLUGS not unlike USB is today, but for many of our electrical items in the home also.

Thanks to the EU we are getting there with LED lighting. Its not that much of a leap to get to similar standardisation (or ISO) for Tv's which are already DC internally, even down to our homes highest energy users washing machines, hoovers and fridge freezers. DC Fridge freezers already exist , as do robot hoovers it wouldn't take much to changeover Washing Machines – just a booster.

Council taxation and LVT as promised at the beginning it will come later , there's already plenty out there that do the change from one to the other justice – which I may well plagiarise and highlight at a later date.

In the meantime google why not google LAND VALUE TAX , also known as ANNUAL GROUND RENTS OR REVENUES, where those with the most pay the most, plus can aid our indy farmers wrestle themselves away from banks and Lairds - installing them as partners benefiting from an indy Scotland.

Final thought.

Scotland has a future which is unwritten once independent, but has its own pen and paper and not its neighbours to write as seen fit.

It has a history that already is written , which should be bettered rather than repeated, and that's what I hope can be done.

Scotland 2.0 is a nation, an industry even waiting to happen, one where we can once again punch above our weight – then sell the franchise onward that socialism quite LITERALLY begins@home.

Cheers.